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Waterway BlockConfirmedDeveloping

Leaking tanker off Omani coast is sinking deeper, satellite images show

Measured from 8 Aug 2026 (event start), not the 8 Aug 2026 announcement

S&P 500
+4.0%
Key Takeaway

Airline stocks moved -8.2%, the largest reaction measured, though not statistically significant, meaning it may reflect normal market noise rather than the event itself. This is a provisional result; the full measurement window is not yet complete.

DAL, UAL, AAL · down

01

What Happened

A sanctioned tanker carrying approximately 1 million barrels of oil is sinking deeper into the sea off Oman's coast, where it has been grounded for weeks. Satellite images show progressive submersion, raising the probability of a total loss and environmental spill. The vessel is part of Iran's shadow fleet operating under sanctions.

Full Analysis
Why It Matters

1 million barrels removed from supply if total loss occurs; environmental event risk in high-traffic waterway; tightens already-stressed Iranian crude export capacity

Timing

Ongoing deterioration as of August 8; total loss timing unknown

About This Date

Satellite imagery reviewed August 8 shows a sanctioned tanker carrying nearly 1 million barrels increasingly submerged off Oman. The vessel has been grounded for weeks; the worsening condition increases environmental and supply risk but timing of total loss is uncertain.

Read how dates work →
Developing, Provisional Numbers

Partial reaction shown. Significance flags are marked provisional and may change as more price data accumulates.

04

How To Read This

Each sector below is a basket of named stocks. The percentage shown is the move beyond the overall market (S&P 500) , what event studies call the . A move only counts as when it sits clearly outside that basket's normal weekly swings.

05 · Move beyond the overall market

How Much Sectors Moved

Path over time. Click a sector in the legend to toggle it. Dashed lines mark key moments.

Oil tanker operators
+5.0%
STNG, FRO, INSW
not significantt=0.91 · provisional
Oil & gas producers
+5.3%
XOM, CVX, COP
not significantt=1.11 · provisional
Defense contractors
+2.8%
LMT, RTX, NOC
not significantt=0.69 · provisional
Gold
+1.6%
GLD
not significantt=0.39 · provisional
Airline stocks
-8.2%
DAL, UAL, AAL
not significantt=-1.53 · provisional

Airline stocks moved most at -8.2% against the market, the direction you would expect from a waterway block. None of the moves cleared the significance threshold. Read the direction as flavour, not signal.

0
07 · peak move and reversion

Phases

SectorPeak MovePeak DayReverted By
Oil tanker operators-7.9%Day -3Day 2
Oil & gas producers-7.2%Day -3Day 0
Defense contractors-1.9%Day -4Day -2
Gold+4.6%Day 0Still elevated
Airline stocks+4.9%Day -3Day -1

The reaction peaked around day -3 on average. 4 of 5 sectors reverted inside the window, 1 were still elevated at the close. A reaction that reverts is a shock priced in; one that stays is a re-rating.

10a · measured moves

Companies Most Affected

STNG
STNG
Oil tanker operators
+6.6%
FRO
FRO
Oil tanker operators
+4.6%
INSW
INSW
Oil tanker operators
+3.9%
XOM
XOM
Oil & gas producers
+4.7%
CVX
CVX
Oil & gas producers
+5.4%
COP
COP
Oil & gas producers
+5.6%
LMT
LMT
Defense contractors
+3.9%
RTX
RTX
Defense contractors
+0.4%
NOC
NOC
Defense contractors
+4.2%
GLD
GLD
Gold
+1.6%
DAL
DAL
Airline stocks
-5.8%
UAL
UAL
Airline stocks
-7.6%
AAL
AAL
Airline stocks
-11.3%
Confidence

Measured 10 days after the event. Reaction still developing; the full window is not yet complete.

This tool informs your decision. It does not give investment advice.