US strikes Iran for 11th consecutive night as Hormuz conflict derails ceasefire talks
Measured from 22 Jul 2026 (event start), not the 22 Jul 2026 announcement
Defense contractors moved +10.4%, the largest reaction measured, though not statistically significant, meaning it may reflect normal market noise rather than the event itself. This is a provisional result; the full measurement window is not yet complete.
LMT, RTX, NOC · up
What Happened
The United States launched its 11th consecutive night of military strikes against Iran, targeting military installations and infrastructure designed to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon confirmed the death toll among US military personnel has reached 18, including Sgt. Angel S. Rampersad, following Iranian attacks on a military base in Jordan. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed the conflict has cost $37.5 billion so far and is seeking urgent additional funding. Pakistan attempted to revive ceasefire talks, but fighting has intensified rather than diminished. Simultaneously, Yemen's Houthi militia announced plans to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, creating a second critical chokepoint risk beyond Hormuz itself.
Global energy markets are operating with the thinnest strategic reserves in years while two major maritime chokepoints face simultaneous disruption threats, creating a rare dual-shock scenario.
Ongoing as of July 22, 2026; escalation pattern suggests at minimum weeks of continued tension; Pakistan's ceasefire efforts indicate low probability of near-term resolution.
Reporting confirms 11th consecutive night of strikes as of July 22, 2026, with escalation ongoing and no de-escalation timeline visible.
Read how dates work →Partial reaction shown. Significance flags are marked provisional and may change as more price data accumulates.
How To Read This
Each sector below is a basket of named stocks. The percentage shown is the move beyond the overall market (S&P 500) , what event studies call the . A move only counts as when it sits clearly outside that basket's normal weekly swings.
How Much Sectors Moved
Path over time. Click a sector in the legend to toggle it. Dashed lines mark key moments.
Defense contractors moved most at +10.4% against the market, the direction you would expect from a waterway block. None of the moves cleared the significance threshold. Read the direction as flavour, not signal.
Volatility
Volatility measures how erratic prices became, a separate signal from the direction of the move.
Market fear rose modestly
- Oil tanker operators50% → 24%2.1x calmer after
- Oil & gas producers26% → 26%volatility roughly unchanged
- Defense contractors25% → 39%1.6x more volatile after
- Gold24% → 22%1.1x calmer after
- Airline stocks37% → 52%1.4x more volatile after
The VIX rose 6.0 percent across the window, a mild move. Read this as the market's demand for protection, not the direction of any single sector.
A ratio above 1.00 means the sector's daily-price swings widened after the event. Defense contractors became the most erratic at 1.55×, and 2 of 5 sectors traded meaningfully wider than they did before. Volatility is a separate signal from direction: a sector can end flat and still have traded wildly along the way.
Phases
| Sector | Peak Move | Peak Day | Reverted By |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil tanker operators | +6.5% | Day 5 | Still elevated |
| Oil & gas producers | +9.3% | Day 5 | Still elevated |
| Defense contractors | +11.2% | Day 3 | Still elevated |
| Gold | +2.8% | Day 5 | Day 7 |
| Airline stocks | -5.6% | Day 1 | Day 2 |
The reaction peaked around day 4 on average. 2 of 5 sectors reverted inside the window, 3 were still elevated at the close. A reaction that reverts is a shock priced in; one that stays is a re-rating.
Historical Precedents
Companies Most Affected
Measured 10 days after the event. Reaction still developing; the full window is not yet complete.
This tool informs your decision. It does not give investment advice.