Ships stop crossing Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran trade strikes
Measured from 13 Jul 2026 (event start), not the 13 Jul 2026 announcement
Oil & gas producers moved +6.3%, the largest reaction measured, though not statistically significant, meaning it may reflect normal market noise rather than the event itself.
XOM, CVX, COP · up
What Happened
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of globally traded oil and liquefied natural gas transits, has experienced a sharp drop in traffic to five-week lows following escalated US-Iran military exchanges. The United States launched approximately 140 strikes on Iranian targets over the weekend in response to Iranian attacks on a container ship, which caught fire and left a crew member missing. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes targeting American military facilities across Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Tehran explicitly claimed to have blocked transit through the Strait, while the US asserted it maintained control. Multiple commercial vessels have ceased transiting the chokepoint due to perceived maritime security risks. The June ceasefire agreement between the two nations has effectively collapsed, with President Trump declaring it over.
One-fifth of global crude supply at risk of sustained disruption; immediate 6 percent+ oil spike signals market expects prolonged closure; KOSPI crashed 8.95 percent and Asian equity markets opened sharply lower
Active as of July 13, 2026; closure began following weekend attacks and continues with no resolution timeline visible
Reporting confirms transit disruptions occurring on July 13, 2026, with Tehran claiming the vital shipping route has been blocked due to ongoing US military action. The closure is actively happening as of market close.
Read how dates work →How To Read This
Each sector below is a basket of named stocks. The percentage shown is the move beyond the overall market (S&P 500) , what event studies call the . A move only counts as when it sits clearly outside that basket's normal weekly swings.
How Much Sectors Moved
Path over time. Click a sector in the legend to toggle it. Dashed lines mark key moments.
Oil & gas producers moved most at +6.3% against the market, the direction you would expect from a waterway block. None of the moves cleared the significance threshold. Read the direction as flavour, not signal.
Volatility
Volatility measures how erratic prices became, a separate signal from the direction of the move.
Market fear eased
- Oil tanker operators54% → 32%1.7x calmer after
- Oil & gas producers29% → 28%volatility roughly unchanged
- Defense contractors33% → 16%2.0x calmer after
- Gold25% → 24%volatility roughly unchanged
- Airline stocks45% → 40%1.1x calmer after
The VIX fell 3.0 percent across the window, essentially flat. Read this as the market's demand for protection, not the direction of any single sector.
A ratio above 1.00 means the sector's daily-price swings widened after the event. Oil & gas producers became the most erratic at 0.98×, and 0 of 5 sectors traded meaningfully wider than they did before. Volatility is a separate signal from direction: a sector can end flat and still have traded wildly along the way.
Phases
| Sector | Peak Move | Peak Day | Reverted By |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil tanker operators | +8.0% | Day 9 | Day 11 |
| Oil & gas producers | +11.5% | Day 19 | Still elevated |
| Defense contractors | -5.4% | Day 3 | Day 6 |
| Gold | +5.6% | Day 17 | Still elevated |
| Airline stocks | -13.3% | Day 4 | Day 7 |
The reaction peaked around day 10 on average. 3 of 5 sectors reverted inside the window, 2 were still elevated at the close. A reaction that reverts is a shock priced in; one that stays is a re-rating.
Historical Precedents
Companies Most Affected
Measured 35 days after the event. Full window complete.
This tool informs your decision. It does not give investment advice.