US economy misses expectations in Q2 as tariffs, Iran war weigh on growth
Measured from 31 Jul 2026 (event start), not the 31 Jul 2026 announcement
Semiconductors moved +8.4%, the largest reaction measured, though not statistically significant, meaning it may reflect normal market noise rather than the event itself. This is a provisional result; the full measurement window is not yet complete.
NVDA, AMD, INTC · up
What Happened
US GDP growth slowed to 1.5 percent annualized in second quarter 2026, significantly missing analyst consensus expectations, with tariff policies and the Iran war conflict jointly cited as primary headwinds. Despite resilient consumer spending and solid business investment in AI infrastructure, the headline growth number collapsed to near-recession levels. The weak growth outcome reflects combination of tariff-driven input cost inflation, supply chain disruptions, and energy price shock from Middle East conflict compressing business margins and consumer purchasing power. Manufacturing activity particularly suffered from tariff impacts on imported components and intermediate goods. The result creates policy dilemma for Trump administration with three months until midterm elections, facing weak growth headline while inflation remains elevated.
Combined tariff and Iran war supply shocks produce near-recession growth outcome, establishing weak macro backdrop for equity valuations and raising recession probability below 12-month horizon.
Q2 2026 GDP data released July 31, 2026, final advance estimate
US Q2 2026 GDP growth data released July 31, 2026, showed 1.5 percent annualized growth versus expectations. The timing is official government statistical release, firm and binding.
Read how dates work →Partial reaction shown. Significance flags are marked provisional and may change as more price data accumulates.
How To Read This
Each sector below is a basket of named stocks. The percentage shown is the move beyond the overall market (S&P 500) , what event studies call the . A move only counts as when it sits clearly outside that basket's normal weekly swings.
How Much Sectors Moved
Path over time. Click a sector in the legend to toggle it. Dashed lines mark key moments.
Semiconductors moved most at +8.4% against the market, the direction you would expect from a tariffs. None of the moves cleared the significance threshold. Read the direction as flavour, not signal.
Volatility
Volatility measures how erratic prices became, a separate signal from the direction of the move.
Market fear eased
- Industrials27% → 35%1.3x more volatile after
- Semiconductors64% → 45%1.4x calmer after
- Retailers24% → 10%2.3x calmer after
- Broad market12% → 13%volatility roughly unchanged
The VIX fell 9.0 percent across the window, a mild move. Read this as the market's demand for protection, not the direction of any single sector.
A ratio above 1.00 means the sector's daily-price swings widened after the event. Industrials became the most erratic at 1.31×, and 1 of 4 sectors traded meaningfully wider than they did before. Volatility is a separate signal from direction: a sector can end flat and still have traded wildly along the way.
Phases
| Sector | Peak Move | Peak Day | Reverted By |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | -3.8% | Day 0 | Day 1 |
| Semiconductors | -15.7% | Day -2 | Day 2 |
| Retailers | +8.0% | Day -2 | Day 0 |
| Broad market | +0.1% | Day 0 | Day 1 |
The reaction peaked around day -1 on average. 4 of 4 sectors reverted inside the window. A reaction that reverts is a shock priced in; one that stays is a re-rating.
Historical Precedents
Companies Most Affected
Measured 10 days after the event. Reaction still developing; the full window is not yet complete.
This tool informs your decision. It does not give investment advice.