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TariffsConfirmedDeveloping

What to know about Trump's latest tariffs

Measured from 25 Jul 2026 (event start), not the 25 Jul 2026 announcement

S&P 500
+0.4%
Key Takeaway

Semiconductors moved -10.0%, the largest reaction measured, though not statistically significant, meaning it may reflect normal market noise rather than the event itself. This is a provisional result; the full measurement window is not yet complete.

NVDA, AMD, INTC · down

01

What Happened

President Trump implemented new double-digit tariffs on imports from 60 US trading partners, citing failures to address forced labor concerns as the stated justification. The tariffs include a 12.5 percent rate on China described as unlikely to trigger immediate Chinese retaliation despite Beijing's opposition to unilateral duties. Canada faced additional tariffs following earlier trade escalations, forcing the cancellation of a cross-border ribbon-cutting ceremony for the Gordie Howe Bridge opening. Legal challenges were immediately filed by US small businesses arguing the forced labor justification lacks legal foundation. The tariff structure applies broadly across manufacturing, agriculture, and consumer goods.

Full Analysis
Why It Matters

Broad-based tariff shock affects 60 trading partners simultaneously, multiplying supply chain disruption and margin compression across US manufacturing and retail sectors

Timing

Tariffs implemented July 25, 2026, with unclear phase-in timing but described as effective immediately

About This Date

Trump rolled out new double-digit tariffs on Friday, July 25, 2026, on imports from 60 US trading partners. The announcement was made on this date with tariffs stated to be effective immediately or in near term.

Read how dates work →
Developing, Provisional Numbers

Partial reaction shown. Significance flags are marked provisional and may change as more price data accumulates.

04

How To Read This

Each sector below is a basket of named stocks. The percentage shown is the move beyond the overall market (S&P 500) , what event studies call the . A move only counts as when it sits clearly outside that basket's normal weekly swings.

05 · Move beyond the overall market

How Much Sectors Moved

Path over time. Click a sector in the legend to toggle it. Dashed lines mark key moments.

Industrials
-2.2%
CAT, DE, BA
not significantt=-0.48 · provisional
Semiconductors
-10.0%
NVDA, AMD, INTC
not significantt=-0.90 · provisional
Retailers
+3.4%
WMT, TGT
not significantt=0.59 · provisional
Broad market
+0.1%
SPY
not significantt=1.00 · provisional

Semiconductors moved most at -10.0% against the market, the direction you would expect from a tariffs. None of the moves cleared the significance threshold. Read the direction as flavour, not signal.

06 · how erratic prices became

Volatility

Volatility measures how erratic prices became, a separate signal from the direction of the move.

How Much Choppier Each Sector Got
Realised volatility, before vs after
  • Industrials
    25%41%
    1.7x more volatile after
  • Semiconductors
    58%92%
    1.6x more volatile after
  • Retailers
    24%27%
    1.1x more volatile after
  • Broad market
    12%19%
    1.6x more volatile after

A ratio above 1.00 means the sector's daily-price swings widened after the event. Industrials became the most erratic at 1.65×, and 3 of 4 sectors traded meaningfully wider than they did before. Volatility is a separate signal from direction: a sector can end flat and still have traded wildly along the way.

07 · peak move and reversion

Phases

SectorPeak MovePeak DayReverted By
Industrials-2.6%Day 4Still elevated
Semiconductors-9.2%Day 2Day 3
Retailers+4.2%Day 2Day 3
Broad market+0.1%Day 4Still elevated

The reaction peaked around day 3 on average. 2 of 4 sectors reverted inside the window, 2 were still elevated at the close. A reaction that reverts is a shock priced in; one that stays is a re-rating.

09 · click to expand

Historical Precedents

10a · measured moves

Companies Most Affected

CAT
CAT
Industrials
-8.3%
DE
DE
Industrials
-2.2%
BA
BA
Industrials
+3.9%
NVDA
NVDA
Semiconductors
-5.1%
AMD
AMD
Semiconductors
-13.2%
INTC
INTC
Semiconductors
-11.5%
WMT
WMT
Retailers
+1.9%
TGT
TGT
Retailers
+4.9%
SPY
SPY
Broad market
+0.1%
Confidence

Measured 10 days after the event. Reaction still developing; the full window is not yet complete.

This tool informs your decision. It does not give investment advice.