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InvasionConfirmedDeveloping

Russia strikes Ukraine vessels, military facilities — Russia strikes Ukraine vessels and military facilities, as Serbia

Measured from 8 Aug 2026 (event start), not the 8 Aug 2026 announcement

S&P 500
+4.0%
Key Takeaway

Airline stocks moved -8.2%, the largest reaction measured, though not statistically significant, meaning it may reflect normal market noise rather than the event itself. This is a provisional result; the full measurement window is not yet complete.

DAL, UAL, AAL · down

01

What Happened

Russian forces conducted precision strikes on Ukrainian military supply ships and weapons warehouses at ports in Odesa and Mykolaiv on August 8, 2026, using air-launched weapons and drones. Simultaneously, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced support for Ukrainian independence and desire for closer economic ties with Kyiv, stopping short of committing to sanctions on Russia. This represents Serbian diplomatic realignment toward Ukraine and NATO.

Full Analysis
Why It Matters

Serbian realignment is geopolitical loss for Russia and consolidates NATO presence in Balkans; Russian strikes persist, confirming war continuation and sustained European defense demand

Timing

Strikes and Serbian pledge reported August 8, 2026; ongoing war context

About This Date

Reported August 8, 2026. Russia's strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure (Odesa, Mykolaiv) and Serbian President Vucic's pledge of support for Ukrainian independence are confirmed developments. Serbia's shift is significant because it had maintained neutrality; this represents a geopolitical realignment but does not yet constitute military intervention.

Read how dates work →
Developing, Provisional Numbers

Partial reaction shown. Significance flags are marked provisional and may change as more price data accumulates.

04

How To Read This

Each sector below is a basket of named stocks. The percentage shown is the move beyond the overall market (S&P 500) , what event studies call the . A move only counts as when it sits clearly outside that basket's normal weekly swings.

05 · Move beyond the overall market

How Much Sectors Moved

Path over time. Click a sector in the legend to toggle it. Dashed lines mark key moments.

Oil tanker operators
+5.0%
STNG, FRO, INSW
not significantt=0.91 · provisional
Oil & gas producers
+5.3%
XOM, CVX, COP
not significantt=1.11 · provisional
Defense contractors
+2.8%
LMT, RTX, NOC
not significantt=0.69 · provisional
Gold
+1.6%
GLD
not significantt=0.39 · provisional
Airline stocks
-8.2%
DAL, UAL, AAL
not significantt=-1.53 · provisional

Airline stocks moved most at -8.2% against the market, the direction you would expect from a invasion. None of the moves cleared the significance threshold. Read the direction as flavour, not signal.

0
07 · peak move and reversion

Phases

SectorPeak MovePeak DayReverted By
Oil tanker operators-7.9%Day -3Day 2
Oil & gas producers-7.2%Day -3Day 0
Defense contractors-1.9%Day -4Day -2
Gold+4.6%Day 0Still elevated
Airline stocks+4.9%Day -3Day -1

The reaction peaked around day -3 on average. 4 of 5 sectors reverted inside the window, 1 were still elevated at the close. A reaction that reverts is a shock priced in; one that stays is a re-rating.

10a · measured moves

Companies Most Affected

STNG
STNG
Oil tanker operators
+6.6%
FRO
FRO
Oil tanker operators
+4.6%
INSW
INSW
Oil tanker operators
+3.9%
XOM
XOM
Oil & gas producers
+4.7%
CVX
CVX
Oil & gas producers
+5.4%
COP
COP
Oil & gas producers
+5.6%
LMT
LMT
Defense contractors
+3.9%
RTX
RTX
Defense contractors
+0.4%
NOC
NOC
Defense contractors
+4.2%
GLD
GLD
Gold
+1.6%
DAL
DAL
Airline stocks
-5.8%
UAL
UAL
Airline stocks
-7.6%
AAL
AAL
Airline stocks
-11.3%
Confidence

Measured 10 days after the event. Reaction still developing; the full window is not yet complete.

This tool informs your decision. It does not give investment advice.