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BombingConfirmedSettled

U.S. military renews strikes on Iran while tankers come under attack in Strait of Hormuz; U.S. launches new strikes on I

Measured from 13 Jul 2026 (event start), not the 13 Jul 2026 announcement

S&P 500
+2.3%
VIX (fear index)
-3%
Key Takeaway

Oil & gas producers moved +6.3%, the largest reaction measured, though not statistically significant, meaning it may reflect normal market noise rather than the event itself.

XOM, CVX, COP · up

01

What Happened

The United States Central Command conducted at least three consecutive nights of precision air strikes against Iranian military targets across multiple sites including Kish Island, Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and undisclosed locations near Natanz nuclear facilities. Targets included coastal radar and surveillance systems, ballistic missile and drone production facilities, and other military infrastructure. Simultaneously, commercial tankers operating in the Strait of Hormuz reported attacks, with unclear attribution between U.S. and Iranian forces. Iranian response included missile and drone strikes against U.S. military facilities in the Gulf region. President Trump announced a unilateral blockade of Iran and declared the U.S. would charge a toll (initially stated as 20 percent) for safe passage of vessels through the Strait. Trump stated a deal remained possible even as strikes continued.

Full Analysis
Why It Matters

Sustained air campaign against Middle East energy and military infrastructure; tanker attacks creating realized shipping disruption; blockade declaration creates explicit intent to restrict critical energy chokepoint.

Timing

Three consecutive nights of strikes beginning July 13, 2026, with third night confirmed for July 14 (Tuesday); ongoing military operations.

About This Date

Reporting confirms three consecutive nights of U.S. strikes beginning on or around July 13, 2026, with the third night explicitly dated to Tuesday (July 14 by UTC). Strikes are ongoing and escalating.

Read how dates work →
04

How To Read This

Each sector below is a basket of named stocks. The percentage shown is the move beyond the overall market (S&P 500) , what event studies call the . A move only counts as when it sits clearly outside that basket's normal weekly swings.

05 · Move beyond the overall market

How Much Sectors Moved

Path over time. Click a sector in the legend to toggle it. Dashed lines mark key moments.

Oil tanker operators
-0.1%
STNG, FRO, INSW
Oil & gas producers
+6.3%
XOM, CVX, COP
Defense contractors
-2.0%
LMT, RTX, NOC
Gold
-1.3%
GLD
Airline stocks
-5.6%
DAL, UAL, AAL

Oil & gas producers moved most at +6.3% against the market, the direction you would expect from a bombing. None of the moves cleared the significance threshold. Read the direction as flavour, not signal.

06 · how erratic prices became

Volatility

Volatility measures how erratic prices became, a separate signal from the direction of the move.

How Nervous The Market Got
VIX, the volatility index
-3%

Market fear eased

Before
17.2
Peak
20.7
After
16.7
How Much Choppier Each Sector Got
Realised volatility, before vs after
  • Oil tanker operators
    54%32%
    1.7x calmer after
  • Oil & gas producers
    29%28%
    volatility roughly unchanged
  • Defense contractors
    33%16%
    2.0x calmer after
  • Gold
    25%24%
    volatility roughly unchanged
  • Airline stocks
    45%40%
    1.1x calmer after

The VIX fell 3.0 percent across the window, essentially flat. Read this as the market's demand for protection, not the direction of any single sector.

A ratio above 1.00 means the sector's daily-price swings widened after the event. Oil & gas producers became the most erratic at 0.98×, and 0 of 5 sectors traded meaningfully wider than they did before. Volatility is a separate signal from direction: a sector can end flat and still have traded wildly along the way.

07 · peak move and reversion

Phases

SectorPeak MovePeak DayReverted By
Oil tanker operators+8.0%Day 9Day 11
Oil & gas producers+11.5%Day 19Still elevated
Defense contractors-5.4%Day 3Day 6
Gold+5.6%Day 17Still elevated
Airline stocks-13.3%Day 4Day 7

The reaction peaked around day 10 on average. 3 of 5 sectors reverted inside the window, 2 were still elevated at the close. A reaction that reverts is a shock priced in; one that stays is a re-rating.

09 · click to expand

Historical Precedents

10a · measured moves

Companies Most Affected

STNG
STNG
Oil tanker operators
+1.5%
FRO
FRO
Oil tanker operators
-3.2%
INSW
INSW
Oil tanker operators
+1.2%
XOM
XOM
Oil & gas producers
+5.6%
CVX
CVX
Oil & gas producers
+8.1%
COP
COP
Oil & gas producers
+5.0%
LMT
LMT
Defense contractors
-3.0%
RTX
RTX
Defense contractors
+0.3%
NOC
NOC
Defense contractors
-3.4%
GLD
GLD
Gold
-1.3%
DAL
DAL
Airline stocks
-2.3%
UAL
UAL
Airline stocks
-6.4%
AAL
AAL
Airline stocks
-7.9%
Confidence

Measured 35 days after the event. Full window complete.

This tool informs your decision. It does not give investment advice.