← Event Feed
BombingConfirmedSettled

US strikes 140 Iran targets after Hormuz ship attack sparks Gulf retaliation

Measured from 13 Jul 2026 (event start), not the 13 Jul 2026 announcement

S&P 500
+2.3%
VIX (fear index)
-3%
Key Takeaway

Oil & gas producers moved +6.3%, the largest reaction measured, though not statistically significant, meaning it may reflect normal market noise rather than the event itself.

XOM, CVX, COP · up

01

What Happened

The United States launched a massive bombing campaign striking approximately 140 Iranian military and infrastructure targets across Iran in response to an Iranian attack on a commercial container vessel in the Strait of Hormuz that caught fire and left a crew member missing. This represents a significant escalation beyond previous rounds of tit-for-tat strikes, with the operational tempo of attacks accelerating to multiple waves within a single week. Iran responded with its own strikes against American military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, claiming an eye-for-eye retaliation. The three-week-old ceasefire agreement signed in June has effectively collapsed, with President Trump publicly declaring it over. This marks the third major round of reciprocal strikes in a single week, signaling an open conflict trajectory.

Full Analysis
Why It Matters

Largest single bombing operation in recent rounds; signals open conflict rather than contained tit-for-tat; confirms ceasefire collapse and increases risk of Hormuz closure or further infrastructure strikes

Timing

Strikes conducted July 12-13, 2026; escalation is real-time and ongoing with no agreed off-ramp visible

About This Date

US strikes initiated on Sunday (July 12 or 13) following an Iranian attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz; US Central Command confirmed approximately 140 targets were struck, with Iran retaliating on Monday July 13. The escalation is confirmed and ongoing.

Read how dates work →
04

How To Read This

Each sector below is a basket of named stocks. The percentage shown is the move beyond the overall market (S&P 500) , what event studies call the . A move only counts as when it sits clearly outside that basket's normal weekly swings.

05 · Move beyond the overall market

How Much Sectors Moved

Path over time. Click a sector in the legend to toggle it. Dashed lines mark key moments.

Oil tanker operators
-0.1%
STNG, FRO, INSW
Oil & gas producers
+6.3%
XOM, CVX, COP
Defense contractors
-2.0%
LMT, RTX, NOC
Gold
-1.3%
GLD
Airline stocks
-5.6%
DAL, UAL, AAL

Oil & gas producers moved most at +6.3% against the market, the direction you would expect from a bombing. None of the moves cleared the significance threshold. Read the direction as flavour, not signal.

06 · how erratic prices became

Volatility

Volatility measures how erratic prices became, a separate signal from the direction of the move.

How Nervous The Market Got
VIX, the volatility index
-3%

Market fear eased

Before
17.2
Peak
20.7
After
16.7
How Much Choppier Each Sector Got
Realised volatility, before vs after
  • Oil tanker operators
    54%32%
    1.7x calmer after
  • Oil & gas producers
    29%28%
    volatility roughly unchanged
  • Defense contractors
    33%16%
    2.0x calmer after
  • Gold
    25%24%
    volatility roughly unchanged
  • Airline stocks
    45%40%
    1.1x calmer after

The VIX fell 3.0 percent across the window, essentially flat. Read this as the market's demand for protection, not the direction of any single sector.

A ratio above 1.00 means the sector's daily-price swings widened after the event. Oil & gas producers became the most erratic at 0.98×, and 0 of 5 sectors traded meaningfully wider than they did before. Volatility is a separate signal from direction: a sector can end flat and still have traded wildly along the way.

07 · peak move and reversion

Phases

SectorPeak MovePeak DayReverted By
Oil tanker operators+8.0%Day 9Day 11
Oil & gas producers+11.5%Day 19Still elevated
Defense contractors-5.4%Day 3Day 6
Gold+5.6%Day 17Still elevated
Airline stocks-13.3%Day 4Day 7

The reaction peaked around day 10 on average. 3 of 5 sectors reverted inside the window, 2 were still elevated at the close. A reaction that reverts is a shock priced in; one that stays is a re-rating.

09 · click to expand

Historical Precedents

10a · measured moves

Companies Most Affected

STNG
STNG
Oil tanker operators
+1.5%
FRO
FRO
Oil tanker operators
-3.2%
INSW
INSW
Oil tanker operators
+1.2%
XOM
XOM
Oil & gas producers
+5.6%
CVX
CVX
Oil & gas producers
+8.1%
COP
COP
Oil & gas producers
+5.0%
LMT
LMT
Defense contractors
-3.0%
RTX
RTX
Defense contractors
+0.3%
NOC
NOC
Defense contractors
-3.4%
GLD
GLD
Gold
-1.3%
DAL
DAL
Airline stocks
-2.3%
UAL
UAL
Airline stocks
-6.4%
AAL
AAL
Airline stocks
-7.9%
Confidence

Measured 35 days after the event. Full window complete.

This tool informs your decision. It does not give investment advice.